Poll Shows Obama Leading McCain in New York

Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has pulled even among white voters in New York State with Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, and now has a commanding overall lead over Mr. McCain, 50 percent to 36 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday. The survey suggests that New York remains a securely blue state, notwithstanding disappointment over the defeat of its home state senator, Hillary Rodham Clinton, by Mr. Obama in the Democratic nominating contests.
Mr. Obama, of Illinois, received 42 percent of white votes in the poll, compared with 43 percent for Mr. McCain, of Arizona. Black voters backed Mr. Obama, 87 percent to 6 percent, as did voters under age 45, 59 percent to 29 percent. Mr. Obama held similar, if smaller, majorities among voters over age 45 (45 percent to 40 percent), men (45 percent to 40 percent) and women (53 percent to 32 percent).
The last Quinnipiac poll, conducted in April when Senator Clinton was still in the race, found a lead of only 47 percent to 39 percent in a hypothetical Obama-McCain matchup. In that survey, white voters backed Mr. McCain, 48 percent to 38 percent, over Mr. Obama.
The new poll was conducted June 3-8 among 1,388 New York State voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Most New York State Democrats in the new survey said that Mr. Obama should pick Mrs. Clinton as his running mate (53 percent to 35 percent), while Republican voters resoundingly opposed the idea (62 percent to 27 percent), as did most independent voters (53 percent to 41 percent).
“Our favorite daughter, Senator Hillary Clinton, won’t be on top of the ballot, but New York is still solidly blue,” Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute and a former Times reporter, said in a statement. “Senator Barack Obama wins in a walk. He pulls even with Senator John McCain among white voters. And he mesmerizes the young. In the 18-to-44 age bracket, he blows McCain away.”
Mr. Obama scored higher than Mr. McCain in terms of favorability. A larger majority agreed that Mr. Obama cared about their needs and problems than Mr. McCain did. Overwhelming majorities said that Mr. McCain’s age (70 percent) and Mr. Obama’s race (85 percent) would not affect their decision.
“You have to be careful when you ask about prejudices,” Mr. Carroll said. “Do people tell the truth? Still, New Yorkers tell us, heavily, they’re not prejudiced because of McCain’s age, and, overwhelmingly, they’re not prejudiced because of Obama’s race.”
New Yorkers listed the economy as the single most important issue in the presidential race, followed by the war in Iraq and health care.
More than three-quarters of the respondents — 76 percent — described the state’s economy as “not so good” or “poor.” That included 84 percent of upstate voters, 66 percent of New York City voters and 75 percent of suburban voters.
An identical proportion — again, 75 percent — disapproved of President Bush’s job performance. Even Republicans were split on the question, 47 percent to 47 percent; 20 percent of those surveyed said they approved of the job Mr. Bush was doing.